US ELECTION 2020: pollster says three states could hold the key for Trump

University of Sunderland third-year Politics student Keith Bays discusses polling predictions as the first states were set to close their polling stations.

Voters cast their ballots under a giant mural at Robious Elementary school in Midlothian, Virginia. Poll workers said that traffic was slow due to all the early voting in the precinct.
Photo: AP Photo/Steve Helber


AMERICA’S leading pollster Nate Silver, head pollster for the 538 polling organisation, has predicted that three states may point a way to victory for Donald Trump.

He said: “If Trump wins the three states of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, then the election becomes a 50-50 race”.

During the early part of election evening, the majority of polls had all of those states as a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Biden, so offering a path for Trump to the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory, but the margins are close, and there is still a greater number of routes for Biden to win the presidency.

Georgia is traditionally a safe Republican state, but changing demographics mean there is a chance it could go Democrat.

North Carolina was won by Trump in 2016 and last voted Democrat in 2012, when Obama won the state. Florida is a complete toss-up state, so it seems realistic that Trump can win these states and improve his chances greatly.

However, a word of caution was also issued by Mr Silver when he said that “Trump only has an 11 per cent chance currently of winning the presidency” – which underscored how significant he thought Florida, Georgia and North Carolina were for Trump’s chances.

But Mr Silver did say in 2016 that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4 per cent chance of winning – a prediction which ended up being totally wrong.

Alternatively, Robert C Cahaly, of The Trafalgar Group polling organisation factored in the so-called ‘silent’ Trump vote (those voters not prepared to express their preference openly), and they have said that Trump will win the election comfortably and that the shy Trump voter will be back.

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